OpenAI

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By when will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?
1.2%
Before January 2025
5%
Before February 2025
13%
Before March 2025
Resolved
NO
Before June 2024
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Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the three months after release?22% chance
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AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]2,030
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Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?50% chance
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What will be true of OpenAI's Sora* model, at the end of 2025? [*see description]
24%
It will be the SOTA for text to video
30%
It can generate videos over 10 minutes long
72%
A second major version of the model has been released
11%
A third major version of the model has been released
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Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?34% chance
Sama says "build for GPT-5 and AGI Now; GPT-5 in 2024, AGI in 2025" | Hacker News
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Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?43% chance
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