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Hard Forkasts 2024

AI 2025

Roko: "...The net total productivity contribution of women to GDP is negative, and by a very large amount." https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1770045723188383975

Nate Silver: "...Election denialism is a good place to draw a harder line, actually." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1772264031899816423

Aella: "I think I was wrong about feminism. I used to be much more feminism-skeptical than I am today..." https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1773241333643145289

Yudkowsky: "Current AIs are roughly as generally intelligent as human 4-year-olds, as dangerous as 4-year-olds, and as controllable as 4-year-olds." https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1773591921996268027

Emmett Shear: "Happy Easter! It’s too bad they’ve killed the bird branding on Twitter, or we could have an egg hunt here." https://twitter.com/eshear/status/1774419161550328283

Matthew Barnett: "It's interesting that we actually got something like a 6 month pause that FLI was asking for in their open letter." https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1774242147346387216

Roko: "Numba Go Up is  the usecase" (for crypto) https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1774140578424651942

Peter Singer: "zoophilia is more morally correct/responsible than eating animals" https://x.com/PeterSinger/status/1723269850930491707

Roko: "Plant based diets are probably very bad for you." https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1743690578250936639

@Duderichy: "The problem with roko is that he’s not very smart" https://twitter.com/Duderichy/status/1477828084019564546

Dimitri: "I don't care about your beliefs as long as you're smart" https://twitter.com/TheDimitriT/status/1773090831097803078

Hanania: "if you need to wash your hands after using the urinal, you're doing it wrong" https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1774499705218863199

i/o: "the big 5 personality traits explain the phenomenon of female-centric wokeness" https://x.com/eyeslasho/status/1773351469418160224

@jeremymstamper "e/accs are suffering Jim Crow era oppression" by being turned away from parties for their affiliation https://twitter.com/jeremymstamper/status/1774477281999864173

Stephen Neukam: "New Yorkers already think they are the center of the universe. Let's not make that worse." https://twitter.com/stephen_neukam/status/1776269366381715753

Dan Elton: "Even if #LongCOVID was not a thing, it's rational to mask at airports if u care about ur health" https://twitter.com/moreisdifferent/status/1776595020365095153

Yud: "how can you regard Bryan Johnson as anything but a hero?" https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1776086891311583394

Yacine: "utilitarianism is what happens to slaves when they lose God" https://twitter.com/yacineMTB/status/1774474147059347656

Yglesias: "deep down people crave to be enslaved by their employer to a fixed routine and place of work..." https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1775344293370122470

Hanania: "The ceasefire crowd doesn't get it. Israel has an actual enemy. It's not the enemy you wish they had." https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1776712070429601930

Brian Chau: "analogies are more often used to hide ignorance than to explain knowledge" https://x.com/psychosort/status/1776699545591673237

Gordon Ramsay: "Pineapple does not go on top of pizza" https://twitter.com/GordonRamsay/status/849177082177482754?lang=en

Scott Alexander: Double-check stories about smart people supposedly not realizing the world is more complicated than their equations. https://twitter.com/slatestarcodex/status/1733243040297611542

Roko: Centrally planned economies work better than market economies with today's compute https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1650939281551007754

Richard Chappell: Utilitarianism just means taking "everyone matters equally" seriously, which other views deny. https://twitter.com/RYChappell/status/1586334574413373440

Kat Woods: "Every ethical argument for having children is dominated by other options that are more effective" https://twitter.com/Kat__Woods/status/1776561239734317211

Destiny: You're free to wear whatever as long as he's free to masturbate in the shower while thinking about your ass. (described more explicitly: https://twitter.com/TheOmniLiberal/status/1706744526252261377 )

Autumn: "a common rat/ssc/tpot mistake is reading charitably by mere habit, not as a thoughtful decision." https://twitter.com/adrusi/status/1776736515508359447

Hasan Abi (quoting Ted Kaczynsky): "The Industrial Revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race." https://twitter.com/hasanthehun/status/1429811787570978817

AGI should distribute the cosmic endowment partially in line with the distribution of present-day wealth https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1651740662436339713

Noah Smith: "political valences of fantasy franchises..." (see tweet) https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1775642688886653214

Vaush: Morally speaking, Israel-Palestine is not complicated. https://twitter.com/VaushV/status/1712256332194312544

Yudkowsky: "The rules say we must use consequentialism, but good people are deontologists, and virtue ethics is what actually works." https://twitter.com/esyudkowsky/status/819678205900509184

Yudkowsky: Community notes are a "smashing home run" as a Twitter feature: https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1712908282581631372

Plasma Ballin': Roko's basilisk will punish Roko for having such bad takes. https://twitter.com/PlasmaBallin/status/1777119075635720413

Plasma Ballin': As a dialetheist, I agree with people who say dialetheism is false. https://twitter.com/PlasmaBallin/status/1777167818368094472

Ryan Moulton: The terms "late stage capitalism" and "enshittification" lead to lack curiosity about why things are as they are. https://twitter.com/moultano/status/1777377238633304238

Armando di Matteo: "Anyway, has anyone else noticed how much Roko looks like Andrea Giambruno (Italian PM Giorgia Meloni's ex)?  Has anyone ever seen them both in the same room?" https://twitter.com/armando1987dim/status/1777636472880763334

hydrology labeling in Apple Maps makes me want to huck my machine out the window
https://x.com/laurenancona/status/1672775969495568384

sama: "Eliezer has done more to accelerate AGI than anyone else" https://twitter.com/sama/status/1621621724507938816

Noah Smith: "Bojack Horseman is just US Evangelion" https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1749313328240037998

Erica: "after 4 sneezes in a row you have to be put down" https://x.com/ericanextdooor/status/1777487627387547756

Plasma Ballin': "If you're against nuclear power, you're not an environmentalist." https://twitter.com/PlasmaBallin/status/1777922228924854623

roko: You can probably just look at the Sun. Your eyes are well-adapted to it.
 https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1777445253739389255

Cycling Professor: “Did you know that CAR LANES are the worst possible answer to the question of how to use road space efficiently?” https://x.com/fietsprofessor/status/1777690411361821098

roko: you absolutely should be able to birth people into debt https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1777721375479787888

Leem: "Car insurance should give you back your money if you don’t get in an accident. We getting scammed yall" https://twitter.com/leemahbo/status/1777737311339581809

@mattyglesias: Middle class Americans live in... a time of unprecedented global prosperity and have ...convinced themselves that they are living through awful historical circumstances. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/177837328226736

“I keep telling guys, if you want meet quality women start with the gym. 

You don’t have to hit on them at the gym, just talk to them, real talk too. “

https://x.com/mikemayfieldlv/status/1777215702241579332

“sometimes I think about all the international drama we could have avoided if only Apple said ‘let's make iPhones work like Macs for installing apps’ “
https://mastodon.macstories.net/@viticci/112130424470259600

The US government needs an agency dedicated to finding and fixing vulnerabilities in open-source software.
https://mastodon.social/@waldoj/112184439632932537

Growing Daniel: "I don't understand prostitution" https://twitter.com/growing_daniel/status/1778674649028866290

Samswara: "patronage/nepotism networks are actually kind of good" https://twitter.com/samswoora/status/1778486792204722560

girl fieri: "You should not take on life altering medical debt on behalf of an animal." https://twitter.com/realgirl_fieri/status/1778501893867610542

Salome Sibonex: "it's scary that we live in a society without shared stories/this is why people are obsessed with politics and macro-level news stories: for shared characters" https://x.com/SalomeSibonex/status/1778606492238709198 (+reply)

Mike Ybarra (president of blizzard): I wish I could pay more for games I liked. https://twitter.com/Qwik/status/1778269707575119977

Robin Hanson: "anyone should be able to sue an organisation that doesn't sufficiently try to fulfil their motto or mission statement" https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1778921933205103073

Yann LeCun: “WhatsApp vs iMessage is the new metric vs imperial.” 
https://x.com/ylecun/status/1778745216842760502?s=46&t=Jg5hf71eDvxayA9Ekf_sjQ

The songs on the 1987 animated movie The Chipmunk Adventure really have no business being so good! https://en.osm.town/@seav/112264097427585847

'AI for good' is the tech companies shifting the blame towards the common people, the same way the auto industry did to pedestrian and oil industry did for recycling.
https://mapstodon.space/@hareldan/112263800144931334

Liz (@inerati): Incredibly sus of anyone who is really into “learning from history”.
https://x.com/inerati/status/1778803497787707534

Postrat_Dril: "You can sleep on a bench one day and in a five star hotel the next and itll be much better than mediocrity all the time."
https://x.com/postrat_dril/status/1779213291883016568

@knowclarified: "bozo vs a-player dichotomy" https://twitter.com/knowclarified/status/1778901318049964339

@nat_sharpe_ : "post-Elon twitter is worse than it was but better than it would have become" https://twitter.com/nat_sharpe_/status/1778938663961079889

@neil_chilson "Targeted advertising is an enormous benefit to humanity with almost no downsides." https://twitter.com/neil_chilson/status/1778960298625401244

Nemo: To dismiss bay-area rationalists, you have to explain why they were so early on AI, crypto, glp-1 agonists, prediction markets, psychedelics, etc. https://twitter.com/thecaptain_nemo/status/1778854143450657269

Kamil Pabis: Wanting to increase fertility instead of longevity as a means to maintain the population is dehumanizing because it treats people as replaceable deprecating tools. https://twitter.com/Aging_Scientist/status/1777587853330993537

Plasma Ballin': Homestuck is good, actually. https://twitter.com/PlasmaBallin/status/1779349502664520125

Eliezer Yudkowsky: "I rarely practice that art, but I admit there's an art to saying things without saying them...." https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1741680303436108117

Kimberly Edwards 74324: ░N░U░D░E░S░ ░I░N░ ░B░I░O░ https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/who-is-behind-all-the-pussy-in-bio-porn-spam-on-x.html

@ilex_ulmus: "ghosting is often the kindest way to reject someone" https://twitter.com/ilex_ulmus/status/1779403388016558186

@algekalipso "Zero Alcohol parties are more fun - I'd rather be at a place where people are liberally using 2C-B, 2C-I, MDMA, MDA, LSD... than taking shots" [see tweet] https://twitter.com/algekalipso/status/1779361048187027932

Chris Williamson "the four most overrated things in the world..." https://twitter.com/ChrisWillx/status/1763202475040059764

Tyler Alterman: "man's best friend is anxiously attached" https://twitter.com/TylerAlterman/status/1779594861974286630

Stefan Schubert: Janan Ganesh on "the myth of the second chance"

"The self-help industry suggests all mistakes in life are retrievable. Middle age teaches us otherwise."

Yes.
https://x.com/stefanfschubert/status/1779596527469494672

@roberts30978934: "The idea of libertarianism can only exist well after society establishes gov law and order, and religion for a common moral thread." (see full tweet) https://twitter.com/RobertS30978934/status/1780016007249027331

Marko Jukic: "Europeans aren't poor. They are illiquid. Much of Europe's wealth is stored in safe streets, nice parks, public transit, "free" healthcare, etc." https://twitter.com/mmjukic/status/1779826873528185059

@realpjpaul: "Trump didn’t do anything that every other former President has done. None of the others were charged. Joe Biden engaged in the exact same conduct, only worse..." https://twitter.com/RealPJPaul/status/1780070309330055251

@sentientist: "settle for Mr. Good Enough; it's rare for any book for women to tell the truth: options shrink with age, pickiness reflects an entitlement most can't afford, many regret not marrying" (see tweet) https://bit.ly/3JmyFUI

O.W. Root: "Dogs are a sign of society's decadence..."
https://x.com/NecktieSalvage/status/1780036928135454929

Aella: "you do not need a soul to satisfy most men's sex drive" https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1780299235541307827

Roko: EA just means "Someone who if they were born in the 1900-1920 period probably would have been a communist" https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1781011396282483060

Liz: "love this website. has improved my life immeasurably." https://twitter.com/inerati/status/1780806546785771941

VanillaOpinions: "you should have to pay for parking" https://twitter.com/vanillaopinions/status/1781174581199294611?t=jyoUGu5EzOFP9UEv3hFcWA&s=19

@romy_holland: "there should be a competency exam you can pass that lets you opt out of all laws that limit personal decision-making" https://twitter.com/Romy_Holland/status/1781018537206911393

Aella: "the social war around gender identity is gonna chill out once we invent artificial wombs and ai-assisted childrearing" https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1781404213391589400

Isaac King: "Wikipedia has done an amazing job of maintaining a reasonable standard of neutrality in polarizing times..." https://twitter.com/IsaacKing314/status/1781222853775360076

Flowers from the Future: "AI is simultaneously overhyped and hugely underestimated." https://twitter.com/futuristflower/status/1781784956827562428

@Danny249512: "MBTI isn't an exact science but it's eye opening, fun, and easy. I urge you to take the test. It may change your life." https://x.com/Danny249512/status/1780253251645968517

vie: "We're like one single development away from recursively self-improving AI" https://twitter.com/viemccoy/status/1781824275051372611

Random sprint: Meta-meta ethics https://twitter.com/RandomSprint/status/1779991354426196308

@emnode: "blocking roads is not peaceful protest it is false imprisonment" https://twitter.com/emnode/status/1780761885102489946

roko: "Veganism is bad on purpose. It's a costly class signal." https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1782523211328127052

DrJadeMcGlynn "what does it even matter if Russians are all secretly against the war? We can’t know what ppl secretly think. " https://x.com/DrJadeMcGlynn/status/1781963082232680770

@popovaprof "The "we're risking WW3 if..." in relation to Ru is getting really stale. At this point, it's looking more and more like a marker for ignorance or latent desire to see Ru win." https://x.com/PopovaProf/status/1782468629738455349

@JoeBiden 
"Don’t inject bleach.
And don’t vote for the guy who told you to inject bleach."

Nate Silver: "Just go to a state school... elite higher ed is cringe." https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1782113251846709629

Michael Harriot: “…If an armed squad can round up citizens and lock them in cages without enforcing an actual law…” [see tweet] https://x.com/michaelharriot/status/1783707042886152698?s=46&t=ysuToRHdvIMAo_KadMtpHA

Joe Postingg: "The NCR bans slavery, delivers infrastructure, and even holds competitive elections. They're the good guys. Anything else is cope." https://x.com/JoePostingg/status/1783907183765102655

Nate Silver: "Twitter had held up way better than nearly all the detractors predicted, kinda time to face the facts?" https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1783670950493393402