Hard Forkasts 2024

Plus

Will the Apple Vision Pro be successful enough to revive interest in mixed reality and the metaverse?NO

Plus

Will Elon Musk get his own Hunter Biden laptop scandal in 2024?YES

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Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?NO

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Will Threads overtake X in daily active users by the end of 2024?NO

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Will Google mostly catch up to OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize ChatGPT's lead by the end of 2024?NO

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Will a lawless LLM chatbot get 10 million daily active users by the end of 2024?NO

Premium

Which of Casey Newton's 2024 predictions will come true? [Multiple Choice]

89%

Fragmentation in social media will make it more difficult to understand which narratives are resonating most with voters.

89%

TikTok skates unscathed through another presidential administration.

87%

The number of people who say they are in romantic relationships with AI companions will increase sharply.

31%

Scaled-up AI-generated sludge outcompetes many digital media companies for advertising and affiliate-link dollars, sparking further waves of job losses and consolidation.

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Plus

How many of Casey Newton's 2024 predictions will come true?

1.8%

1

1%

2

1.8%

3

1.5%

4

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Will Shania Twain go on the Hard Fork podcast in 2024?NO

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