Will the United States engage in a war with another country by January 1, 2026?
Will the United States engage in a war with another country by January 1, 2026?
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Resolution Criteria: Specify what constitutes "engaging in a war." For example:
This market resolves to "YES" if the United States is officially declared to be in a state of war with another country by an act of Congress or if there is clear and widely-acknowledged evidence of sustained military conflict involving U.S. forces on foreign soil (excluding minor skirmishes or peacekeeping missions) by January 1, 2026.
Clarifications:
Define "sustained military conflict" (e.g., conflicts lasting over 30 days or involving over 1,000 U.S. personnel).
Exclude drone strikes, cyberattacks, or covert operations unless they lead to broader conflict.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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