Clarification:
Pay attention to the requirement that each side must sustain 1000+ military fatalities. This measure excludes civilians.
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve YES if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources (e.g., official governmental announcements, reputable international media, etc) report a military conflict involving both the US and Iran resulting in at least 1,000 confirmed military deaths for each side.
Military deaths must include uniformed personnel, excluding civilian casualties or indirect deaths (e.g., deaths from economic disruption or secondary effects).
This market resolves NO if no such conflict meeting the criteria occurs by January 1, 2026.
1,000
3.00@Yaqubali I wasn't complaining, just thought it was surprising given that my 100 death market is trading much lower
@DontGoHome I suspect people just read the question without reading the resolution criteria which is very important to read.
@DontGoHome I suspect the same problem of not reading the resolution criteria impacts this question.
https://manifold.markets/Yaqubali/will-there-be-a-war-between-the-isr?r=WWFxdWJhbGk