Does the USA or Iran have to formally declare war for this to resolve YES? Or is there some level of intensity (casualties, troops crossing borders, missiles fired) that must be exceeded for this to resolve?

@Jwags the same resolution as Nick Allen’s 2024 market:

“Public acknowledgement by both sides, major US government figures referring to a state of active war between the US and Iran, multiple media outlets referring to a US-Iran war as something that is actively occuring in a sustained manner, or other similar events will resolve this question "yes". Will not resolve "yes" for drum-beating propaganda, only for active public prosecution of a full-spectrum conflict.”

This is either going to be the single dumbest prediction I have on the table, or I'll be hailed as a genius (solely in my own head)

@rohanvisme

https://manifold.markets/MolbyDick/will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e

WAAY overpriced. See here: https://manifold.markets/MaxHarms/next-us-president-war-with-iran-chi

30% for Russia China AND Iran in not just 2025 but also 2026 2027 and 2028.

@rohanvisme lol

@gigab0nus it's just pretty clear to me where this is headed.

Probably going to buy more YES haha

Arb: the 2024 market should be no higher / this should be no lower

https://manifold.markets/NickAllen/will-the-us-be-at-war-with-iran-by

@spider can you add some resolution criteria please