Resolves yes if any country attacks the continental United States (i.e. lower 48 states) in 2025.

Conventional weapons such as missiles, warplanes, etc. will always count even if they end up causing minimal damage, as long as they physically reach the continental U.S. in some form. (So if a missile was intercepted, this would resolve yes if any fragment of the missile reached the continental United States.)

Cyber attacks or other kinds of sabotage will be counted only if they are serious enough that the general consensus considers them as a clear "act of war". In case of doubt, this will likely be resolved based on whether it caused a significant number of verifiable deaths. There must be general consensus that a foreign country is responsible, but the country does not necessarily need to claim responsibility.

Terrorist attacks will not count unless they are unambiguously sponsored by a particular foreign country. Both the country itself must claim responsibility and general consensus must agree with that.

Any attacks on American troops or civilians located outside the continental U.S. will not count.

I will not bet, this will resolve based on my subjective opinion of the above criteria.

• Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about historical examples, the creator provided the following guidance on how they would have resolved past events:

  • The 1945 Japanese balloon bomb attacks would have resolved YES.

  • The 2001 (9/11) attacks would have resolved NO. The creator states this is because the attacking organization was considered distinct enough from the Afghanistan government to not meet the "unambiguously sponsored" criterion.