AI Capabilities

- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
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Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?28% chance
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Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?21% chance
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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?69% chance
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Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?80% chance
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Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?78% chance
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Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?51% chance
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Premium
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?64% chance
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Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?89% chance
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Crystal
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?82% chance
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Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024?NO
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Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?50% chance
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In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?75% chance
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Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?24% chance
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