This market is on the price of eggs, (Grade A, Large, Cost per Dozen) as measured by the the Bureau of Labor Statistics (see: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of eggs, is higher in the Month of February 2025 than in January 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No“.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm) for February 2025 currently scheduled to be released on March 12, 2025.
1,000
3.00
I'm curious how people are thinking about this. Is this mostly driven by bird flu?
Some base rates:
All months, since 1980: 0.50
Jan->Feb, since 1980: 0.33
All months, since 2000: 0.52
Jan->Feb, since 2000: 0.44
Not sure how relevant it is since prices seem kinda crazy lately.
@gamedev LOL I was wondering if there was an argument it should be lower, but it seems the market disagrees. I guess if you look at the last 12 readings it's about 66% up, so thats an argument for the current price.