Resolves YES if the US trade deficit (seasonally adjusted) for 2025 is less than the US trade deficit for 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.
The data source for this question will be the US Census's monthly report on international trade, seen here: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf. Specifically, we will take the negation of the total trade balance from Part A, Exhibit 1.
See here for the schedule of their releases: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/schedule.html
1,000
3.00I initially took a YES position because I thought it was a good price, but now I'm thinking the actual odds are lower, down near 20%. The problem is he's going to do plenty of talking about tariffs during 2025, but I think it's unlikely they'll take effect before 2026. In the meantime, business communities will do what they always do when tariffs are coming: stockpile imports ahead of the price hike. That'll drive the trade deficit higher in the short run.
Additionally, whatever mix of inflation and economic growth we have will make all the numbers a couple percent larger year-to-year. This prediction market doesn't talk about adjustments for that, so I figure that there's a >50% chance that an existing deficit "grows" in 2025, even without meaningful changes.