Read below:

@SteveSokolowski Are we including the bodies of the hostages who have died?

@AaronSimansky No. I think that the world cares if everyone who is alive is released.

@SteveSokolowski
The following are now the criteria for this market:
1. Market Criteria

• The market resolves to "Yes" if OpenAI's o3 or o3-mini models become commercially available to any person in the United States who is willing to pay for access.

• "Commercially available" means that the models are accessible for purchase or subscription without restrictions beyond standard terms of service.

2. Definitions

• OpenAI o3 and o3-mini: Refers to the generative pre-trained transformer models developed by OpenAI

• "Any person in the United States": Includes individuals, businesses, or entities with a legal U.S. address and valid payment method.

• "Willing to pay": Indicates that the models are available for purchase or subscription, regardless of the price.

• "Released": Signifies that the models are publicly accessible for purchase or subscription. Pre-orders, invitations, or waitlists do not qualify unless accompanied by immediate access upon payment.

3. Exclusions

• Beta testing programs, early access for safety testing, or limited access to specific groups (e.g., researchers, developers) do not qualify as general availability.

• Models requiring participation in lotteries, auctions, or application processes to gain access are excluded.

@traders Please note the following new rule:
If the criteria for an answer are satisfied before Donald Trump takes office that answer will not resolve unless it is impossible for that answer to resolve yes or no after Trump takes office in which case that answer will resolve N/A.

@SteveSokolowski Do you think that o3-mini should count for this market?

@AaronSimansky Yes.

@SteveSokolowski Ok

@AaronSimansky

The current status of government opening is available here.

The market will resolve YES if there is a notice that the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down in the market time scale due to a lapse in appropriations. Notices of a lapse in appropriations resulting in emergency furloughs or impacted government operations will lead to a resolution of YES. Notices of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not lead to a resolution of YES.

@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that has the effect of eliminating time changes (currently biannual) associated with Daylight Saving Time in the United States by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. This includes legislation or actions that standardize time practices across most states, even if some states opt to maintain different practices. The legislation or action does not need to be binding or enforced in all states for this market to resolve to "Yes." The resolution will consider such legislation or action valid regardless of whether its effective date falls after the deadline for this market, provided it is enacted or signed before the deadline.

@AaronSimansky This will resolve to yes if there are any publicly filed charging documents, charging a member of the January 6 committee with any crime in federal court.

@AaronSimansky This will resolve to "Yes" if the justice department, court fillings, the Trump administration, or a member of the January 6th committee confirms that they are the target of a criminal investigation by the federal government of the United States.

@JessicaEvans These are my proposed rules for your question. Please let me know within 12 hours if you would like to modify the rules.

Rules:
§1 - Condition Definition:
The resolution condition is met if, within the first 100 days of Donald Trump's presidency starting in 2025:

• The President announces publicly the intent to implement a federal ban on gender-affirming medical treatments for transgender youth under the age of 18, and

• This announcement is followed by a significant federal action aimed at enacting or enforcing such a ban. Federal actions may include issuing an executive order, signing legislation, or directing federal agencies to implement rules prohibiting such treatments.
  

§2 - Definition of "Gender-Affirming Medical Treatments":
For the purposes of this market, gender-affirming medical treatments include:

• Hormonal treatments: Use of puberty blockers (e.g., gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists) or cross-sex hormones (e.g., testosterone, estrogen) for the purpose of aligning physical characteristics with gender identity.

• Surgical interventions: Any surgical procedures intended to alter physical sex characteristics in alignment with gender identity (e.g., chest reconstruction, genital surgeries).

• Other medical therapies: Any additional medical procedures or prescriptions explicitly provided as part of gender transition care.

The ban must explicitly target one or more of these categories for transgender youth under the age of 18.

§3 - Definition of "National Ban":
The condition is satisfied if both of the following occur within the 100-day timeframe:

• A public announcement by the President explicitly calling for the prohibition of gender-affirming medical treatments for transgender youth nationwide.

• A concrete federal action that materially advances the implementation of this prohibition, such as:

  • Issuance of an executive order directing agencies to restrict such treatments.

  • Introduction or passage of federal legislation.

  • Regulatory changes by federal agencies such as the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

§4 - Partial Actions or Intentions:

• An announcement without follow-up action does not meet the condition.

• Isolated federal actions without an explicit public commitment of intent to implement a national ban do not meet the condition.

• Temporary restrictions, proposals without enforcement mechanisms, or symbolic gestures do not meet the condition.

@Marnix
These are my proposed rules for your question. Please let me know within 12 hours if you would like to modify the rules.
Rules
§1- For this to resolve "Yes" the ban must remove transgender people from serving in the US military.

§2 - The ban does not need to cover civilian positions to count.

§3 - Court rulings or other future actions regarding the ban will not prevent this market from resolving "yes"

@AaronSimansky Not prohibiting - EJECTING. That is to say, transgender people currently serving in the military are ejected from service. A simple ban is too likely — one was implemented in 2019 and was overturned by the Biden administration. Actively removing all trans people currently serving would be a step up from that.

@Marnix I updated the rules based on your feedback. Please let me know if I have your approval.

@AaronSimansky I think that seems good enough to me! Though I think you may have dropped a word after "removes."

@Marnix actually, hang on. Now that I reread this, I think "An order removing transgender people who do not serve under their gender assigned at birth will not qualify" feels like it might kind of be antithetical to the question itself - did you mean "An order removing transgender people who serve under their gender assigned at birth"?

To be honest, I think that'd be a little antithetical to it too, though. I don't think it's too important to try and exclude anything that's like "don't ask don't tell" for trans people — don't ask don't tell was still a ban on gay people in the military!

@Marnix I think you're right. I eliminated two parts to address your concerns.

@AaronSimansky

Does this have to go into effect in the first 100 days? What if he signs a law ending taxes on tips effective Jan 1 2026?

@FoxKHTML it doesn't have to go into effect within the first 100 days as long as it has a definite date of going into effect and the date is before the next president is to take office (this last part is to ensure that it is clearly part of Trump's agenda and not part of anybody else's agenda)

@AaronSimansky this will resolve "yes" if within the first 100 days of Donald Trump's administration, a special counsel is appointed under the provisions of 28 C.F.R. § 600.1

@AaronSimansky The resolution condition is met if the United States officially withdraws from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) within the first 100 days of Donald Trump's presidency starting in 2025. Withdrawal is defined as the U.S. formally notifying NATO of its intent to exit the organization, in accordance with Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty, and ceasing to participate in NATO operations and obligations.

The resolution will rely on official government documentation and announcements, including:

• Official U.S. State Department communication to NATO.

• NATO's acknowledgment of the U.S. withdrawal.

• White House announcements.

• Congressional records (if legislation is involved).

The condition is met if:

• The U.S. formally submits a written notification to NATO of its intent to withdraw, as required by Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

• The U.S. ceases to participate in NATO activities, including military operations and strategic planning.

• Partial actions (e.g., reducing funding, withdrawing troops, or signaling an intent to leave without formal notification) do not satisfy the condition.

Temporary suspension of participation, threats to leave NATO, or delays in the withdrawal process beyond the 100-day timeframe do not meet the condition.

Reducing involvement, withholding funding, or limiting participation without formal withdrawal as defined by NATO's treaty terms does not meet the condition.

@AaronSimansky The resolution condition is met if the United States government officially and completely lifts all existing sanctions against Russia during Donald Trump's first 100 days. Sanctions include financial, trade, travel, military, and diplomatic restrictions imposed by executive order, legislation, or other official means.

The resolution will rely on official government documentation and announcements, including:

• The Federal Register (publication of sanctions removal).

• Official White House communications.

• U.S. Department of the Treasury (Office of Foreign Assets Control updates).

• Congressional records (if sanctions are repealed by legislation).

The condition is met if all U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia are officially removed and no new sanctions are imposed within three months.

• The condition is not met if any sanctions remain in place

• Lifting certain sanctions or categories of sanctions (e.g., on specific individuals or industries) does not meet the condition. The removal must encompass all sanctions on Russia.

• Temporary suspensions or waivers of sanctions do not meet the condition. The removal must be permanent or effective for the remainder of Trump's presidency.