So was the question answered based on the talk about a creator, the universe, and labels, or did he actually use the words ‘believe’ and ‘God’ somewhere?

I knew it! Grifters gotta grift and that demographic is just too juicy a target

https://youtu.be/mUMb7YxNvQI

@GraemeStuart so his senility journey has been completed

@GraemeStuart can you link the exact moment he says it?

@skibidist from about 1:20

@GraemeStuart given Musk's prior statements about living in a simulation, I don't think he's specifically talking about Christianity's god. Just, whoever/whatever created this playground we're living in. Most people call such a creator "god"; it's a label that fits. But buying into the rest of the religious stuff? Heaven, hell, specific creation myths, Jesus, etc? Eh, would need to see some direct statements from him on those.

But this market isn't constrained to Christianity's god. Looks like it should resolve YES, regardless of how much I was expecting a NO.

@GraemeStuart Given this clip, I'm curious why people still think this market might resolve no.

@DanHomerick Who says it's not contained to the Christian God? It's not like it says "a god". I think the most likely intention is to refer to the Christian God.

Also, it didn't exactly seem like he was very comfortable with the god label anyway.

@Elspeth indeed. I think some people are trying to argue about the definitions

@GraemeStuart He clearly buys into some version of irrational mumbo jumbo and that's good enough for me.

@skibidist I agree with this resolution, but not for this reason. They were asked directly, "you don't believe in god, do you?", and they replied, "I believe this universe came from something". From my perspective, the pragmatic intent of this statement was clearly to reply in the affirmative; this in conjuction with their previous statement "god is the creator". It's difficult to interpret this exchange as anything other than claiming a belief in "god".

Almost there is a huge stretch, although I guess he can always pretend to believe in God (in one of) the way(s) normal people mean it, and then pivot to Spinoza's "God" or whatever later.

At any rate, 2025 is too soon if I were to guess, although he's certainly unpredictable.

@DavidHiggs the market asks if he will say he believes in a God, not if he believes it.