Elon Musk has expressed intention to create a new political party
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930685402631053403?s=46&t=mr67c6cgUP2ic11sukpB0g
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially establishes a new political party in the United States by December 31, 2025. For the purpose of this market, a political party is defined an organization that coordinates candidates to compete in American elections and doesn’t require governmental recognition.
Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The criterion 'Elon Musk officially establishes a new political party' will be met if Elon Musk is an official founding member of such a party, even if he is not the sole or primary person responsible for its establishment.
Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market may resolve to Yes even if the entity does not coordinate candidates for any elections, as long as it is widely recognized as a political party.
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In ambiguous cases, the distinction between a 'political party' and an 'organization' will be determined by media consensus.
Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An organization that only endorses candidates from other existing parties will not be considered a 'political party' for the purposes of this market.
Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A tweet or public announcement alone is not sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The creator requires more tangible evidence of the party's formation, such as a website or dedicated social media account.
Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A political party can be considered established for the purposes of a 'Yes' resolution even if it has not yet run any candidates in an election.
Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A Yes resolution can be triggered if the entity self-identifies as a political party and there is a media consensus that it is one.
Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that they do not want to wait for a future election cycle (e.g., the next midterms) to resolve the market. The resolution will not be delayed to observe whether the party actually runs candidates.
Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The distinction between a political party (which qualifies for a 'Yes' resolution) and an organization that only endorses other candidates (which does not) will be determined by the new entity's stated purpose. The market can resolve to 'Yes' if the stated purpose is to run its own candidates, even if it has not yet done so.
Update 2025-07-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market can resolve to Yes based on the stated purpose of the new entity, even before it has run any candidates in an election. If its purpose is to provide a platform to organize candidates, it will be considered a political party.
Update 2025-07-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to the complexity of the resolution criteria, the creator has stated that the final decision will be guided by the principle of 'I know it when I see it'. This implies that a final layer of subjective judgment will be used to determine the outcome, in addition to the previously listed criteria.
1,000
3.00@Simon74fe No, this one technically doesn't require an FEC filing, but it does require that the org do more than just endorse other parties' candidates, so it would practically require an FEC filing in at least one state. This market isn't going to wait for the party to actually run a candidate, but since it needs to credibly be able to, it's very very similar.
made a longer term multiple choice version without needing to define “political party”:
https://manifold.markets/JasonQ/what-will-be-true-of-elon-musks-ame?r=SmFzb25R
Kalshi is continuing to fall; the entire pump above 45% was based on the false FEC filing. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnewpartymusk/musk-new-party
@Panfilo Or, at least to an extent. The Big Beautiful Bill passing and pissing off Musk, along with his follow up tweets rallying for a party, are also signals to buy upwards, but it may have overextended upward, requiring a snap back down.
@Quroe Also Tesla stock dropped 7% in response to the bill + party announcement, sending the signal that Musk should not go on another adventure if he wants to protect the home front.
@Panfilo It could also be that the stock market was responding to how the OBBBA clawed back some EV car mandates. Less government subsidies to EVs seems like it directly affects Tesla.
@Panfilo Or... Hm... Was it timed to the bill passing Senate? Or did it coincide with Musk's party creation tweets?
@Quroe Re: the bill, one would expect the hit to be mostly priced in given its large publicity and the very high likelihood of it being passed at least within the next few weeks even if it had missed July 4th.
@Panfilo Markets like surety. Many people are reluctant to make decisions unless they have sure-fire information rather than just likely odds.
Stock market trading is starting to leave my realm of expertise, and I'm risking changing the subject entirely with this: I am personally of the opinion that the stock market as a whole is operating on vibes and feelings, not pure data.
The Buffett Indicator Valuation Model is telling me that the stock market is uncalibrated and emotionally driven right now.
