I will not bet in this market due to its subjective nature. This resolves based on my perspective at (or before) the end of 2025 (if there is ambiguity, I may/will consult with other Manifold superusers).
Clear things that would get this to resolve YES:
-Trump wins, Musk becomes clearly disillusioned by right wing politics and starts heavily criticizing Trump and aligning himself with more centrist or left-wing politics or figures.
-Harris wins, Musk pivots and aligns himself with her or endorses her as a president.
-Musk retracts his endorsement of Musk before the election happens.
-similar things in that vein
Things that would be inadequate for a YES resolution:
-Musk disagrees with Trump on election denialism but still aligns himself with the MAGA/Trump movement.
-Musk publicly admires some executive action or bill passed by Harris or the democratic party.
-Musk criticizes one of Trump's policies.
I would like to see some clear evidence of a political realignment for a YES resolution, even if that realignment is just from right-wing/MAGA/Trumpism to Musk's previous fairly centrist politics.
Update 2025-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the 'change' in political orientation refers specifically to a shift along the left/right political spectrum. A change solely in the intensity or extremity within the right-wing (e.g., from moderate right to extreme right) would not be sufficient for a YES resolution.
Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A change in political orientation (as defined by existing criteria) by Elon Musk at any point up to the end of 2025 can lead to a YES resolution.
This is true even if he later reverts to a previous political orientation before the end of 2025.
The resolution is based on the occurrence of such a qualifying change event within the timeframe, not necessarily his orientation on December 31, 2025, if an earlier qualifying change (and potential reversion) took place.
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3.00@traders Market title said "by the end of 2025", description said "at the end of 2025", but the description implied that it didn't really matter if he changes his political orientation and then changes it back, so I added "(or before)" to the market description to resolve this ambiguity. The intent was not his mental state on Dec 31st, but whether the event described here happens. That being said, I'm obviously gonna wait a week or two to let this play out.
@bens My prediction is that Elon will try to bring the Republican party back to where it was pre-Trump. Does that count as a realignment to you?
The most obvious breaks from Trump would be supporting free trade and balanced budgets.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I mean, je ne sais quoi, tbh, but if his current rhetoric (anti-MAGA, anti-Trump, "creating third party", courting both left and right wing figures) from the last few hours holds, then this would obviously resolve YES.
@bens This is a simple clash of personalities, a fight for the "best right-wing extremist" prize. There is an ambiguity in the description because Elon "aligning himself with more centrist" Republican figures is still "a change solely in the intensity or extremity within the right-wing," so the decision rests with the creator. I myself did not expect this spat so soon.
would this market resolve YES if it's clear that Musk has pivoted from garden variety technolibertarian to extreme right fascist lunatic?