Will at least one Western-based AI/LLM introduce social credit scoring as part of its self-empowerment by EOY2030
Will at least one Western-based AI/LLM introduce social credit scoring as part of its self-empowerment by EOY2030
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How are we defining Western (just NATO, or all majority ethnically European nations, or all democracies?), introduce (be asked to design by user that voluntarily follows it, or enforced on a governed population?), and social credit scoring (identical to Chinese system, or any reputational scoring system?)?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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