What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?
What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Plus
23
Ṁ17282026
32%
It is #1 in Elo according to Chatbot Arena Leaderboard
55%
Its main name is GPT-5
75%
It will have Video(Input) modality
62%
It will have Video(Output) modality
91%
It will have Audio(Input) modality
78%
It will have Audio(Output) modality
19%
It will have been released in H1 2025
74%
It will have been released in H2 2025
46%
It can score Bronze or higher on IMO
43%
It has an anthropomorphic name
"Best" refers to on December 31st, 2024.
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Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - Best is defined as the model that is #1 in Elo according to the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard as of December 31st, 2024. (AI summary of creator comment)
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It is #1 in Elo according to Chatbot Arena Leaderboard
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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