Resolves based on this, or equivalent if it moves etc:

https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer&year=2025&duration=1

I've been forecasting 'seriously' on Metaculus since roughly the end of 2022.

In 2023 I scored 8th for Peer Accuracy

In 2024 (provisional) I got 2nd, although I will probably drop a bit as not all 2024 questions have resolved. I'm currently losing out on 1st by 0.02 points!

This makes me want to win outright in 2025. Will I do it?

Considerations:

• I do intend to try to win in 2025, but not to the extent of trying to 'cheese' it or play 'fully optimally' as that seems boring and not fun:

  • e.g. if I get an early lead I won't just stop forecasting

  • e.g. I'll be only somewhat selective on what I forecast on; I do have limited time and prefer to forecast on questions I (believe I may) have alpha on, but I'd rather forecast most stuff than trying to fish for top ~30 'best' questions across the year.

• A year is a long time so I might get bored or my life circumstances could change.

  • For the moment, forecasting is my primary employment, so it's very likely I'll commit for at least the first half of 2025.

• I do have major travel plans (3-6 months) this year so it's plausible I'll take a significant break, though at this stage I expect to continue forecasting during any travel.

• I won't bet in this market nor adjust my Metaculus behaviour to influence the outcome of the market (over and above generally trying to score well)

• Metaculus could tweak the leaderboard scoring rules in ways that advantage or disadvantage me (e.g. they changed between 2023 and 2024 w.r.t how they account for question coverage, so they plausibly might again for 2025).

Fine print:

• The numbered ranks are inclusive, so e.g. placing first resolves yes for the lower ranks too

• The actual medal received takes precedence over the percentiles, if Metaculus changes the definition of how medals are awarded. The percentiles are just context.

• If the leaderboard changes such that there's no clear equivalent for an option, or Metaculus stops having leaderboards or stops existing or something, then that option resolves N/A.