Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year?
Basic
5
Ṁ13592100
1D
1W
1M
ALL
34%
2%+ (Resolves start of 2027)
30%
2%+ (Resolves start of 2026)
Resolved
NO2%+ (Resolves start of 2024)
Resolved
NO2%+ (Resolves start of 2025)
Resolves annually to Metaculus' community prediction. Feel free to add new years and integer thresholds in a matching format.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will humans go extinct before 2100? [Resolves to Metaculus in 2027]
4% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2030?
82% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2035?
42% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2025?
92% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2026?
90% chance
Will Humans become extinct in 2300?
50% chance
Will Humans go extinct by 2200?
39% chance
[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
75% chance
[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?
25% chance
Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
3% chance