@mods Please resolve YES.

It looks like the account that created this market has been deleted.

The crowd counting consortium data for April is out: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/RI9JFU

Their estimates for all "Hands off" events on April 5th are:

low: 849 K, mean: 1 121 K, high: 1 394 K

Flipping through the data, I would say those are potentially a bit conservative as reporting like "over X" or "more than X" is counted the same as "precisely X" (i.e. the same number in low, mean, high columns)

@AIBear R code for reproduction/checks:

library(readr)

library(dplyr)

dat <- read_csv("~/ccc-phase3-public.csv", guess_max = 5000)

dat |> filter(date == "4/5/2025",grepl("^Hands off", title, ignore.case = TRUE)) |>

summarise(sum(size_low, na.rm = TRUE), sum(size_mean, na.rm = TRUE), sum(size_high, na.rm = TRUE))

@AIBear looks good to me!

@dlin007 you're the market creator, are you good to resolve this based on the mean being well above 1M?

@JamesBaker3 yes. the best good-faith estimates (CCC, Wikipedia, DemocracyNow) are at or above 1 million so i'll be resolving YES unless someone produces an equally rigorous estimate supporting < 1 M

If NYC and Washington had 100k and had highest turnout, do we think another 10 cities had 50k? 100 cities had 5k? Still seems close to me but too lazy to try running numbers.

How will this resolve if Wikipedia estimates a range e.g. 800k - 1.1m?

Looks like https://ash.harvard.edu/programs/crowd-counting-consortium/ would be a good resolution source. They update monthly.

Crowd Counting Consortium – Ash Center

Publicly available data on political crowds in the United States, including marches, protests, demonstrations, riots, and other actions.

@JamesBaker3 Where can I see all their updates? I can only see up to October

@manifoldgod @JamesBaker3

I emailed the consortium

Hi Siebe,

The Crowd Counting Consortium team shared they’re currently working on it, but it takes time and they don’t have an expected date for the data release as of yet. Thanks for checking!

Best,
Danielle

https://www.democracynow.org/2025/4/7/hands_off_protest says "over one million" and estimates 100,000 in NYC

“Hands Off!”: 1 Million Protest Trump’s Cuts, Attacks on Education, Immigration, War on Gaza & More

An estimated 1 million protested across the United States and around the world Saturday to tell President Donald Trump and his billionaire ally Elon Musk “Hands Off!” They rallied in opposition to the Trump administration’s dismantling of federal agencies and programs, the war in Gaza and attacks on LGBTQ+ people, immigrants, education, healthcare and reproductive rights. We hear voices from the coordinated “Hands Off!” nationwide protests, described as the largest demonstrations to date since Trump returned to office.

Perfect seismograph market.

It's unclear to me whether the turnout has to be in a single location.

@Kynakwado Not if the Women's march qualifies, which it unequivocally does.

@JamesBaker3 Yeah the Women's March was neither all in one spot, nor 100% marching, so it's pretty clear that those concerns from the comments won't be an issue.

I think this is already yes: https://chatgpt.com/share/67f486d0-1438-800c-85bc-c8b55ea6993a

@DavidFWatson ChatGPT is not a reliable source. Did you read any of the articles it linked?

@jumpman_folder I looked at the cited Wikipedia article, The number of cited cities, and looked at crowd size pictures for a few. Shall we try to add them all up, I agree that’s a reasonable follow up.

@DavidFWatson I made 2 estimates where there were relatively clear aerial pictures

https://bsky.app/profile/siebepersists.bsky.social/post/3lm66tnvesc25

Siebe (@siebepersists.bsky.social)

A couple of crowd size amateur estimates for the #handsoff protests 🧵 Boston, Massachusetts 50K - 63K

@Siebe those are about 1% of their metro populations. I see 144 cities on the Wikipedia list. That might cover 250 million people, leading us to 2.5 million protesters. This doesn’t account for variations in partisanship though. (I haven’t had time to further check individual protests obviously)

@DavidFWatson I appreciate the attempt at an estimate, but this doesn't take into account selection bias - these are probably the biggest protests proportional their population. For example, this implies a 200K protest in New York, which definitely didn't happen

@Siebe fair enough, the nyc one looks a fair bit smaller

@Siebe FWIW this article is estimating 25k for St. Paul: https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/thousands-of-people-gather-at-state-capitol-for-hands-off-rally/

@jumpman_folder thanks, that would imply a much lower density, or the map tool being wrong. I did mark the area right..