Will 20+ people die in anti-Trump protests in 2025?
Will 20+ people die in anti-Trump protests in 2025?
Plus
49
Ṁ70602026
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Wikipedia claims that at least 19 people died as part of the BLM protests in 2020, including protesters, bystanders, looters, and guards. Will there be greater levels of violence in 2025? If at least 20 people die in connection with left-leaning political protests in 2025 this resolves YES, otherwise NO. If it's unclear, I'll err on the side of YES.
Related:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Nominative determinism is the hypothesis that people tend to gravitate towards areas of work that fit their names.
@MingCat TIL
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will there be major social unrest in the USA by July 2025?
8% chance
Will street protests against Trump's agenda result in at least one death in 2025?
73% chance
📢✊ In what countries will mass public protests start in 2025?
If Trump wins, will multiple protestors die in Washington DC?
18% chance
Will organizers and leaders of protests against Donald Trump in the summer of 2025 be arrested and face federal changes?
67% chance
If Trump wins the US presidential election, will at least 100 people die in riots/protests against his presidency?
9% chance
Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2025?
45% chance
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026?
26% chance
How many Americans will die due to political violence in 2024?
Will more than 10,000 people die as a result of Trump's mass deportations?
16% chance