What about rounding? What if I can find a source showing the number moved from eg. 29.4% to 29.3%?

@jessald Might be able to demonstrate that confidence did decline by some small amount by reverse engineering their methodology

@jessald how can a rounding error explain 26 -> 30?

@TheAllMemeingEye yeah I posted that before reading the report

didn't even think this was possible on binary markets lol

@TheAllMemeingEye can sell

Resolves NO (26 -> 30)

The data is out: https://news.gallup.com/file/poll/692660/2025_07_17_Confidence%20in%20Institutions%20Topline%20and%20Tabs.pdf

@AdamJones aren't there several months left for it to decline before 2025 is over?

@AlexanderTheGreater Gallup has polled this question exactly once per calendar year since 1993, usually in May-July. The last year it was polled twice was 1991, and even then there was an eight-month gap between the two polls

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1597/Confidence-Institutions.aspx

What's going on with this market, I'm totally lost.

@ElijahRavitzCampbell seems most people think yes, but Alex is very confident in no haha

The data was released 5 days ago: https://news.gallup.com/file/poll/692660/2025_07_17_Confidence%20in%20Institutions%20Topline%20and%20Tabs.pdf

@TheMiddleMan most people didn't do a google search I guess