Will Pew Research’s moving average for, “Public Trust in Government”, fall below 11 percent in 2025?
Will Pew Research’s moving average for, “Public Trust in Government”, fall below 11 percent in 2025?
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Pew Research publishes a moving average of, "Public Trust in Government", for the USA, about once a year, usually by the end of October.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/public-trust-in-government-1958-2023/
Question is, will the moving average fall below 11 percent when released in 2025?
Question will be resolved
N/A if the report is not released by Nov 1, 2025
Yes if the 2025 Moving Average is 10 or Lower
No, if the 2025 Moving Average is 11 or Higher
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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