Will Americans believe AI does more good than harm in 2025, according to Gallup?

Basic

Ṁ150

Sep 1

15%

chance

ALL

Gallup began polling Americans on their beliefs about artificial intelligence in 2023, publishing their most recent results in August 2024. According to Gallup, only 1 in 10 Americans believe AI will "do more good than harm", whereas 3 in 10 Americans believe AI will do "more harm than good". About half of Americans think AI will do equal amounts of harm and good.

This question resolves YES if Gallup polling for 2025 shows more Americans believe AI will do "more good than harm" compared to Americans who believe AI will "do more harm than good".

For example, if Americans who see AI as good rise from 13% to 25%, and Americans who see AI as bad drop from 31% to 24%, then this question would resolve YES, since more Americans are favourable than disfavourable.

Americans who think there will be equal parts good and bad do not matter for the purposes of this question.

If there is a tie, this resolves NO.

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

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