Bro OP really thinks this conflict will be resolved by mid July???!?!

@Alex231a that date may have been auto selected by an ai, and not their intended resolution date

I was about to continue my war on bad resolution criteria, by pointing out that this market is another example for "attracts traders, because the criteria are bad".

But I changed my mind and surrender. As I surrendered first: resolves "other".

@Primer makes sense to me

if nothing happens by the resolution date, does this resolve "other"?

Thid market is absurd. "surrender" meams anything for both sides. There is no clear war goal defined. And we know both sides will call it a victory anyway

Yeah, I really need more clarity for this market. What defines “surrender”, nobody is going to publicly capitulate here.

How do you define surrender when either countries have not officially declared war?

What does other mean in this context?

Peace treaty? 🤷‍♂

@Quroe who surrenders in a peace treaty?

@AlexanderTheGreater I'm... not sure. I come to Manifold to be taught something new about the world. 😅

Someone else will surrender before Iran or Israel does. 😂

@manipool America will surrender first trust

@AlexanderTheGreater A state of war still doesn’t technically exist. No formal declaration, no surrender-adjacent peace treaty. If there is a treaty it’ll be one that lets everyone save some face in exchange for the actual objectives of the military action. This question needs better resolution criteria, like whether or not the operation results in long term shuttering of Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

@Driftloom I would assume in this context it means like the first to back down, but I agree its kinda ambiguous and needs clearer definitions for the resolutions.

@LucasQuan In historical exchanges between these two, they tended to strike back and forth until they just declare themselves satisfied and stop shooting. Nobody “backs down”.

@boom Market Creator, would you like to weigh in?