🇮🇷🇮🇱 Will Iranian leadership or Israeli leadership change first?
🇮🇷🇮🇱 Will Iranian leadership or Israeli leadership change first?
Basic
22
Ṁ808Oct 8
Iran - Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei69%
1D
1W
1M
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Resolves to which ever of the two top leaders steps down, is democratically removed from their office (Bibi), is killed, is removed from power via revolution, is removed from power via external invasion, or otherwise is no longer listed as the top leadership and figurehead of the primary governance of their country.
If resolution is unclear, will default first to the official position of the respective governments i.e. if it’s said that one of them is killed, I will not resolve until their country openly admits it even if there’s initial credible reporting and some group claiming credit, and if Netanyahu loses an election I will not resolve until the next Prime Minister is actually in office.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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