At the start of 2025, Elon Musk was on good terms with Trump, being appointed to new positions and interacting closely with Trump’s transition team. However, there are reports that he’s facing backlash from Republicans who see him as overstepping or trying to replace Trump, and they have now been fighting on social media. Will Musk be on good terms with Trump at the end of 2025?
It does not matter what happens throughout the year, only the state at the end of 2025.
Resolves based on my subjective opinion of the news. I aim to be neutral and objective when resolving, but ultimately this will be subjective.
Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the creator is extremely confident that one party (Musk or Trump) had the other killed, the market will resolve NO in that case. This addresses a specific scenario of death, which may be handled differently than a potential N/A resolution for other instances of death.
1,000
3.00Possible improvement in relationship
@DozenDucc seems like we are about to have the most stupid debate ever about what "being on good terms" means
@Balasar I don’t particularly want to have to assess that likelihood as part of this market, but if I am extremely confident that one had the other killed then I would resolve NO in that case.
@gamedev I don't think there's any coming back from this. Neither Trump nor Elon is the kind of person to apologize and make amends.
@spiderduckpig In the case that Elon's continued accusations are damaging enough to Trump's image, Trump may choose to capitulate. So in this scenario, Elon is using the accusation to make Trump give up and become buddies again.
This is unlikely, but is the only plausible scenario I can imagine.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Agree but this is a whole different level of professional wrestling we're all watching and there are a lot of incentives for both parties to work something out. Not incredibly likely but I think more than 15%
@spiderduckpig many things I have long thought impossible in politics have not only come to pass, but in the most insane and theatrical way possible. I could see it happening
@TiagoChamba It does get to a point where he paints a bad enough picture of Trump that it would make no political sense for Elon to, say, go back to working with Trump after insinuating he is a pedophile (I can imagine the press conferences now), but who knows with these people
@Gabrielle You might want to remove the word "still" from the market's title to make it clearer, that it's only about the end of 2025
@Agh Since it is a dynamic situation and traders could easily be confused, I removed 'still' from the title and Gabrielle can handle the rest later.
Some relevant news:
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1929954109689606359
I'm aware that this resolves at the end of the year, but if it were to resolve now, what would the outcome be? Does Musk openly criticizing legislation that Trump vocally supports and takes personal responsibility for count as being on bad terms?
@thbsp I think that it’d be right on the edge right now, leaning towards NO, but that I’d want to do more research.
@JonasSourlier Correct, if the market were to resolve right now, it would resolve NO. But they have half a year to make up, so it’s still possible.