If I had more mana and was willing to wait until resolution, the only reasonable bet is to bet entirely NO. AGI is ASI - if some amount of compute creates a human like intelligence, it can perform tasks much faster and without the emotional overhead of a human with direct interfacing. If such an AGI exists, we're all done for anyways, so no point having mana. Also, LLMs seem unlikely to be the path to AGI - even with O3 "passing" benchmarks, no approach so far has revealed a tendency to a general intelligence, only that specialized in text (where cost grows exponentially) and that must be tackled individually. I'm surprised to see this market (and its siblings) as high as they are.

@SahilDeshmukh nah we're going to get AGI, maybe not before 2027, and you'll still be alive and ok for quite some time past that point.

How are you tracking AGI being achieved?

Could I suggest monitoring Dr Alan Thompson's (Australian AI Professor's) Conservative countdown to AGI? - https://lifearchitect.ai/agi/

@OneGuy Ah interesting! think the physical embodiment is incorrect though

@OneGuy I haven't found a clear set of critieria that really clicks with me yet, so haven't specified a list of bullet points in the question description so far. I plan on sticking as close as possible to what the general consensus on "definition of AGI" is, so it shouldn't be drastically different from other people's criteria. If I don't find a list to link to directly then I'll write one myself and put it in the description (or link to it if the description starts getting too long).

Thanks for the url you posted! I'm also happy to hear input from anyone else.