Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2027
Here are markets with the same criteria:
Will we get AGI before 2024?NO
Will we get AGI before 2025?NO
Will we get AGI before 2026?5%
Will we get AGI before 2027?15% (this question)
Will we get AGI before 2028?33%
Will we get AGI before 2029?50%
Will we get AGI before 2030?58%
Will we get AGI before 2031?62%
Will we get AGI before 2032?64%
Will we get AGI before 2033?69%
Will we get AGI before 2034?73%
Will we get AGI before 2035?74%
Will we get AGI before 2036?76%
Will we get AGI before 2037?77%
Will we get AGI before 2038?78%
Will we get AGI before 2039?79%
Will we get AGI before 2040?80%
Will we get AGI before 2041?82%
Will we get AGI before 2042?81%
Will we get AGI before 2043?82%
Will we get AGI before 2044?82%
Will we get AGI before 2045?84%
Will we get AGI before 2046?85%
Will we get AGI before 2047?87%
Will we get AGI before 2048?90%
Related markets:
Will we get ASI before 2027?6%
Will we get ASI before 2028?8%
Will we get ASI before 2029?12%
Will we get ASI before 2030?18%
Will we get ASI before 2031?32%
Will we get ASI before 2032?40%
Will we get ASI before 2033?50%
Will we get ASI before 2034?55%
Will we get ASI before 2035?60%
Other questions for 2027:
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2027?63%
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2027?9%
Will we discover alien life before 2027?7%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2027?6%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2027?5%
Other points of reference for AGI:
Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?50%
Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?40%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?33%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?69%
Will we get AGI before we get room temperature superconductors?83%
Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?85%
Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?56%
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?60%
May I suggest that AGI should be capable of "full autonomy"? I.e. it should be able to keep competently acting in the world once given instructions/values, able to pursue long-term strategies as well as a human
This would refer to theoretical competence, as there's a (small) chance that full autonomy would be banned/delayed
If I had more mana and was willing to wait until resolution, the only reasonable bet is to bet entirely NO. AGI is ASI - if some amount of compute creates a human like intelligence, it can perform tasks much faster and without the emotional overhead of a human with direct interfacing. If such an AGI exists, we're all done for anyways, so no point having mana. Also, LLMs seem unlikely to be the path to AGI - even with O3 "passing" benchmarks, no approach so far has revealed a tendency to a general intelligence, only that specialized in text (where cost grows exponentially) and that must be tackled individually. I'm surprised to see this market (and its siblings) as high as they are.
@SahilDeshmukh nah we're going to get AGI, maybe not before 2027, and you'll still be alive and ok for quite some time past that point.
How are you tracking AGI being achieved?
Could I suggest monitoring Dr Alan Thompson's (Australian AI Professor's) Conservative countdown to AGI? - https://lifearchitect.ai/agi/
@OneGuy I haven't found a clear set of critieria that really clicks with me yet, so haven't specified a list of bullet points in the question description so far. I plan on sticking as close as possible to what the general consensus on "definition of AGI" is, so it shouldn't be drastically different from other people's criteria. If I don't find a list to link to directly then I'll write one myself and put it in the description (or link to it if the description starts getting too long).
Thanks for the url you posted! I'm also happy to hear input from anyone else.