Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2038
Here are markets with the same criteria:
Will we get AGI before 2024?NO
Will we get AGI before 2025?NO
Will we get AGI before 2026?5%
Will we get AGI before 2027?14%
Will we get AGI before 2028?33%
Will we get AGI before 2029?45%
Will we get AGI before 2030?56%
Will we get AGI before 2031?65%
Will we get AGI before 2032?72%
Will we get AGI before 2033?72%
Will we get AGI before 2034?72%
Will we get AGI before 2035?74%
Will we get AGI before 2036?77%
Will we get AGI before 2037?78%
Will we get AGI before 2038?78% (this question)
Will we get AGI before 2039?78%
Will we get AGI before 2040?79%
Will we get AGI before 2041?82%
Will we get AGI before 2042?82%
Will we get AGI before 2043?83%
Will we get AGI before 2044?84%
Will we get AGI before 2045?85%
Will we get AGI before 2046?87%
Will we get AGI before 2047?87%
Will we get AGI before 2048?89%
Related markets:
Will we get ASI before 2027?4%
Will we get ASI before 2028?8%
Will we get ASI before 2029?15%
Will we get ASI before 2030?22%
Will we get ASI before 2031?31%
Will we get ASI before 2032?40%
Will we get ASI before 2033?44%
Will we get ASI before 2034?49%
Will we get ASI before 2035?51%
Other questions for 2038:
Will a human walk on Mars before 2038?45%
Will we discover alien life before 2038?17%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?54%
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2038?51%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2038?37%
Other reference points for AGI:
Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?52%
Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?40%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?33%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?69%
Will we get AGI before we get room temperature superconductors?84%
Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?77%
Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?60%
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?66%
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What is this?
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