Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2042
Will we get AGI before 2024?NO
Will we get AGI before 2025?NO
Will we get AGI before 2026?5%
Will we get AGI before 2027?11%
Will we get AGI before 2028?37%
Will we get AGI before 2029?48%
Will we get AGI before 2030?64%
Will we get AGI before 2031?67%
Will we get AGI before 2032?68%
Will we get AGI before 2033?69%
Will we get AGI before 2034?73%
Will we get AGI before 2035?74%
Will we get AGI before 2036?76%
Will we get AGI before 2037?78%
Will we get AGI before 2038?79%
Will we get AGI before 2039?78%
Will we get AGI before 2040?80%
Will we get AGI before 2041?83%
Will we get AGI before 2042?82% (this question)
Will we get AGI before 2043?83%
Will we get AGI before 2044?84%
Will we get AGI before 2045?87%
Will we get AGI before 2046?88%
Will we get AGI before 2047?89%
Will we get AGI before 2048?90%
Related markets:
Will we get ASI before 2027?6%
Will we get ASI before 2028?8%
Will we get ASI before 2029?11%
Will we get ASI before 2030?20%
Will we get ASI before 2031?30%
Will we get ASI before 2032?40%
Will we get ASI before 2033?47%
Will we get ASI before 2034?50%
Will we get ASI before 2035?54%
Other reference points for AGI:
Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?47%
Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?40%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?33%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?69%
Will we get AGI before we get room temperature superconductors?83%
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