Will Iranian government action cause the deaths of at least 10 Americans within the borders of the US in 2025?
20
Ṁ584Dec 31
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This will resolve YES iff, by December 31, 2025, credible news sources report that either terrorist or "official" state actions funded and/or directed by the Iranian government have killed at least 10 Americans within the US.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the US be at war with Iran before the end of 2025
50% chance
Will Iran kill any US citizens in retaliation for the recent attack before June 24?
19% chance
Will Iran attack US military sites before July 1, 2025?
58% chance
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?
90% chance
Will the US sustain more than 100 casualties in 2025 as a result of the conflict with Iran?
26% chance
Will there be American soldiers in Iran before 2026?
28% chance
Will the U.S. launch a ground invasion against Iran in 2025?
17% chance
Will Iran or its proxies launch an attack on U.S. assets in the Middle East by July 31, 2025?
78% chance
Iranian strike on U.S. soil in 2025?
33% chance
Will there be a war between the US and Iran before January 2026?
13% chance