Between Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US citizens be killed by US military members on US soil?
Between Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US citizens be killed by US military members on US soil?
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This question asks about killings of US citizens only due to domestic military operations (so e.g. assassinations like that of Anwar al Awlaki do not qualify). For instance, deployments of US troops against domestic protests under the Insurrection Act would qualify.
Edited to clarify that I mean only civilian deaths, so e.g. friendly fire training accidents don't count.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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