Will GPT-5 earn Bronze on IMO 2025?
7
Ṁ124
Dec 31
44%
chance

Resolves yes after GPT-5 is first benchmarked on IMO-2025. OpenAI's own reporting counts. Also resolves yes if the model achieves Silver or Gold.

  • Update 2025-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the conditions under which the model's performance will be evaluated:

    • No scaffolds are permitted.

    • The model must be prompted with the questions exactly as written.

    • The model must not have access to tools or the internet.

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Seems largely dependent on whether this market permits custom scaffolds by external researchers. If Gemini 2.5 Pro could win Gold with custom elicitation, then GPT-5 could likely get at least Bronze. https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.15855

@bh For this market I'll say no scaffolds. Model must simply be prompted with the questions exactly as written with no tools are internet access

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