Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025?
16
Ṁ1556
2026
40%
International Physics Olympiad
31%
International Chemistry Olympiad
36%
International Biology Olympiad
58%
International Astronomy Olympiad
39%
International Earth Science Olympiad
52%
International Olympiad on Astronomy & Astrophysics
Resolved
YES
International Mathematical Olympiad
Resolved
YES
International Olympiad in Informatics

Resolution Criteria:

The AI must win Gold in that particular Olympiad Competition before the end of 2025. The question set up allows people to vote yes or no for each listed Olympiad competition.

  • Update 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Olympiads with potential practical or lab elements (e.g., Physics, Chemistry, Biology), resolution will be based on the creator's understanding that these are pen-and-paper only competitions.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ2 NO

How is AI performance determined for physics/chem/bio/earth sci considering the existence of practical/lab elements?

@__lockheedmartin it is my understanding that those exams are only pen and paper. Do you have evidence to the contrary?

@AlanTuring IPhO at least is 30pt theory 20pt experimental; if you assigned AI an experimental score of 0 it would be pretty much impossible for it to achieve gold. I'm unsure of exact formats for chemistry and biology but I'm pretty sure they have lab elements.

IESO has a practical (usually field work) that is also scored alongside the test; I could see this being implemented by feeding the model images of the site in addition to the practical question paper.

“Notably, o3 achieves a gold medal at the 2024 IOI and obtains a CodeForces rating on par with elite human competitors.”

https://arxiv.org/html/2502.06807v1

Advanced version of Gemini with Deep Think officially achieves gold-medal standard at the International Mathematical Olympiad

https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/advanced-version-of-gemini-with-deep-think-officially-achieves-gold-medal-standard-at-the-international-mathematical-olympiad/

I'm new to the platform and want to know how to resolve this question. If AI wins the "International Olympiad in Informatics" can I resolve the question and give a win to that answer while allowing the other answers to remain open... or do I have to resolve all the multiple answers simultaneously.

bought Ṁ400 YES

@AlanTuring Yes. you can resolve one option at a time. Try clicking the "resolve" button to open the options, you can easily click out of it. (There is similar linked market type where you have to resolve everything at once.)

@FlorisvanDoorn thank you.

bought Ṁ20 YES

I think IOI is easier for AI than IMO

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules