
Resolves YES, if
Musk explicitly says he regrets the endorsement, or
Musk says e.g. that Trump is a terrible president, without saying that Harris would have been worse.
Resolves N/A if and when it is clear that someone else than Trump is inaugurated after the 2024 elections.
Will be closed and resolved in January 2027 at latest, at the midpoint of the presidential term.
It's a bit subjective so I will not bet.
Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is about to resolve the market. See the linked comment for more details.
I think I have to resolve this as yes. I would say the "terrible president" level has been met by Musk's posts today. I'd say they are stronger than "Trump is terrible" if anything.
Some selections of Musk's latest x posts, and there is plenty more:
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930722828481098043
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930685402631053403
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930719235770359903
I somewhat regret my wording of this question because "regret" is such a messy concept. However, as the description is written, things look clear to me. Also, it seems obvious Musk would not endorse or fund Trump today.
@Goodgulf I do now think this meets 'terrible president' criteria. I also don't think 'regret' is that ambiguous 'I shouldn't have supported him' / 'even kamala would have been better' would for example pretty clearly indicate regret.
@Goodgulf oops i bet no because i misread, and thought he had to imply that kamala would have been worse.
i agree that this doesn't really match the title (saying a president is bad does not imply anything about whether you regret your vote & whether you think the alternative was better, that's very normal!) but given that the description had explicit criteria they were clearly satisfied. (well, FWIW I'm not convinced by the first two tweets, but the third one is unambiguous)
@Goodgulf Where does Elon say Trump is a terrible president? The linked tweets are criticism, but don't imply an overall judgement on Trump's presidency IMO.
If the election we're next month, I think he would still endorse Trump over Harris.
The resolution seems premature.
Why is this so high? Just because Musk says so many random things that it becomes likely that an „I regret…“ appears by chance?