
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk ?
Plus
67
Ṁ29k2029
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve according to Wikipedia (will disregard obvious troll edits). Basically if Musk ever legitimately appears in that wikipedia list this resolves YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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it's
P(Trump doesn't die during the term) x P(vance loses election) x P(Dems don't moderate significantly) x P(there is no MAGA coup)
i.e.
0.9 x 0.45 x 0.75 x 1 = 0.3
I was foolish to buy yes so high.
@AlexBokov These days presidents are handing out pardons to people who haven't been convicted. It's a new world where a presidential pardon is the US equivalent of being knighted.
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