Harrison with the weather here. My thinking right now is there's a lot of ways state legitimacy can get eroded fast, and there's not many guardrails this time around. It looks like there is a storm of moderate corruption on the horizon, and light to heavy showers of economic hardship. gesturing wildly at green screen Historically when we see weather patterns like this, things may get shooty. There is also the possibility that trump dies. Vance doesn't have the same rallying power, so things might get stranger. A dark, pathetic cloud of Elon Musk outbursts could also undermine the standing of the most powerful nation on Earth. It is true, I am sorry for us all. Unprecedented times call for unprecedented bets, so please tell me if I'm wrong!

would you count jan 6th / 2020 as a coup?

@mattyb If it had had military support, then yes. The coup doesn't have to specifically be against Trump.

@Gabrielle is a coup against Trump more likely than a coup for him?

@BrunoParga That was the assumption that I saw. A lot of military leaders are against the whole “Trump-y” anti-establishment attitude. There’s also been a lot of anti-white-supremacy cleaning out in the military recently, which Trump supporters have been denouncing for being woke.

I’d make a market about it, but the chance of resolving N/A seems far too high.