Will the US will have a Civil War by the end of 2028? | Manifold

Will the US will have a Civil War by the end of 2028?

Plus

21

Ṁ3597

2029

9%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

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bought Ṁ1 YES

was short @ 50

Flipped long @ 16

Will sell in November when it goes to 30+

bought Ṁ10 YES

Full transparency

Adding at 11% election night, if things go zany I’m going to post this to one of the markets saying social u rest at 70% and then monetize.

Total punt but 70% unrest vs 10% 4yr civil war odds seems too wide

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