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Resolution Criteria
This market will track the number of times Trump changes direction on tariff levels during the 2025 calendar year. Specifically:
Each official change in direction of tariff levels counts as one instance of a flip-flop.
Announcements count. The tariffs do not have to be implemented. An announcement to increase tariffs followed by an announcement to cancel the previous announcement counts as a flip flop.
Merely suggesting that it might happen doesn't count.
A flip-flop occurs when Trump officially changes course on a previously established tariff position (raising after lowering, or lowering after raising).
If Trump makes similar directional changes for multiple distinct countries, each will count as a separate flip-flop.
Example: If Trump imposes a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, later reduces it to 10%, and then increases it to 20%, this would count as 2 flip-flops. If he does the same with Mexican goods, that would add 2 more flip-flops, for a total of 4.
The market will track flip-flops from January 1, 2025, through December 31, 2025.
Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Initial Tariff Creation: Initial creation of new tariffs (i.e., going from 0 to a set tariff level) does not count as a flip-flop.
Announcement of Delay: Announcing a delay does count as a flip-flop.
Current Count Breakdown:
1 month delay on Canada and Mexico announced in February: +2 flip-flops
Retraction of 50% tariffs on Canadian steel on March 12: +1 flip-flop
These points update the resolution criteria.
Update 2025-04-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): March 12 Clarification
Both the initial announcement on March 12 (representing a move toward less restrictive tariffs) and the subsequent retraction of the 50% announcement are counted as separate flip-flops.
This clarification means that the actions on March 12 contribute +2 flip-flops (one for the announcement and one for the retraction).
Updated flip-flop breakdown:
Initial February delay: +2 flip-flops
Partial reductions and delays (March 4-6): +2 flip-flops
Flash flip and flop (March 12): +2 flip-flops
1,000
3.00I thin a >10 and >15 category would be good if you can add them. I'm not sure where I'd put the odds, but it seems like they are nontrivial.
(I understand if you don't want to make them to avoid having to watch and judge this nonsense all year.)
@UnconditionalProbability I can't add new answers here unfortunately. I don't know why manifold doesn't allow it
Just to confirm some things that do/don't count:
Feb. 10, "Trump announces plans to hike steel and aluminum tariffs. He removes the exemptions from his 2018 tariffs on steel" (Not a flip flop since these are new tariffs for this term.)
March 4: "Trump's 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico go into effect, though he limits the levy to 10 per cent on Canadian energy."
This seems to partially reverse the executive order from Feb. 1 which set tariffs on Canada to 25%.
March 5: "Trump grants a one-month exemption on his new tariffs impacting goods from Mexico and Canada for U.S. automakers." Also reverses/delays previous tarrifs.
March 6: "In a wider extension, Trump postpones 25 per cent tariffs on many imports from Mexico and some imports from Canada for a month."
Do the March 4-6 changes all count as 2 flops total due to them being all consecutive moves towards less tarrifs, but affecting both Canada and Mexico separately?
March 12: "A fresh wave of tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum kicks in after a back-and-forth day that sees Trump threaten to double levies initially set at 25 per cent, before he eventually reverts to his previous plan."
This sounds like both a flip to more tarrifs and a flop back to less. (Unless the threat of the 50% tarrifs wasn't enough for an "announcement". https://www.todocanada.ca/trump-threatens-50-tariffs-on-steel-aluminum-beginning-march-12/ reports the 50% tarrifs as having been announced, and has a truth social post that I would count as announcement.) (If you are counting delays as separate from reductions then the increase wouldn't be a flip flop, but then I don't think combining the March 4-6 changes into one item makes as much sense.)
From: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-trade-tariffs-timeline-1.74812
@UnconditionalProbability I agree with your judgement on March 4-6. On March 12, since I've said that the retraction of the 50% announcement counts, then the initial announcement must also count, since it's a change in direction from Trump backing down a bit. So I think the current count is 6.
Initial February delay: +2
Partial reductions + delays March 4-6: +2
Flash flip and flop Match 12: +2
Initial creations do not count.
Announcing a delay does count.
Current count:
1 month delay on Canada and Mexico announced in Feb: +2
Retraction of 50% tariffs on Canadian steel on March 12th: +1
I think the current count is 3.
Since the initial criteria was unclear, I will sell my positions before resolving.
@EdisonYi So if I were being super pedantic, I could argue that delays should either count as 0 or 2. Either it is no change or it is first a retraction and then a reinstatement, which should each be a flip?
But I am fine with counting them as 1, as long as it is clear :)