Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?

Plus

685

Ṁ800k

2029

52%

JD Vance

16%

Other

Donald Trump Jr

Marco Rubio

Tucker Carlson

Ron Desantis

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Donald Trump, Sr

Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Republican National Convention in 2028

Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention. If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention. Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"

Remember to bet for "Other". Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#2028 US Presidential Election

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JD Vance's lawyer implied while arguing at the Supreme Court that he will likely run for president in 2028 (because if he didn't, a case concerning his Senate campaign funds would be moot).

I think Pete Hegseth is going to win the Republican nominee for president in 2028.

Can you add Steve Bannon to the list?

bought Ṁ5 NO

Not gonna be JD, unless Trump really pushes. He was specifically picked because he is so unlikable and cringe, so he is not a risk for trump during his term.

Polymarket just released there market for this https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028?tid=1752950217557

opened a Ṁ64 YES at 5% order

Exit YES limit orders up for Vance and Tulsi Gabbard

opened a Ṁ6,000 NO at 52% order

Big limit order up for Vance NO at 52%, any takers?

Travesty of the ages to consider it like this one iota of the being.

I can't believe two guys who are constitutionally prohibited from being president are both getting double what Ron desantis is getting right now 😂

bought Ṁ200 NO

https://www.aol.com/trump-reveals-doesn-t-view-210634837.html

@traders There is a related market here:

bought Ṁ100 YES

😅

@Houston2025

I have a 3rd Trump Term market. 2028 is just at 2%

https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/3rd-trump-term-in

bought Ṁ5 YES

Bought 5 yes on Elon at 0.3%, he's already first friend or whatever we want to call it, and it's theoretically possible that an amendment could be passed

Marco Rubio looking formidable now. He's positioned himself between the Trump wing and the old guard well.

bought Ṁ50 YES

How did these two markets get so wildly out of step?

bought Ṁ1 YES

@PlasmaBallin they're getting back in sync now

I would upgrade the liquidity of this market @creator

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

I don't know why "Other" was so high; the nominee is almost always someone who was a prominent figure at the time of the last election.

I think it comes from a general incredulity that you could guess who the nominee will be 5-6 years in advance. unknown unknowns and all that. I think you have a good point though

oooooops

The fact that Trump is the second-highest option here proves that we are living in a doomed timeline. Clearly something went horribly wrong and now reality is stuck repeating the same events over again like a broken record. We need to find the reset button so we can reboot it.

Arbitration opportunities:

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