Background
Donald Trump's second inaugural address will be analyzed by ChatGPT for its overall tone. For context, Trump's first inaugural address in 2017 was characterized by a mix of both optimistic and pessimistic elements, with a notably darker tone when describing America's current state but ending with hopeful promises for the future.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on ChatGPT's analysis of Trump's second inaugural address, should he win the 2024 presidential election. The analysis will be based on the predominant tone of the speech:
Optimistic will resolve YES if ChatGPT determines the speech primarily emphasizes hope, progress, positive changes, and a bright future for America.
Pessimistic will resolve YES if ChatGPT determines the speech primarily focuses on problems, decline, threats, or negative aspects of the current state of affairs.
The market will resolve N/A if Trump does not give an inaugural address.
Considerations
The resolution will be based on ChatGPT's interpretation, which may differ from human interpretations or media analysis
I will ask ChatGPT whether it considers the inaugural address to be mostly optimistic or mostly pessimistic and will include the transcript in the prompt.
Historical context: Trump's 2017 inaugural address was notably more pessimistic than traditional inaugural addresses, which typically lean heavily optimistic
Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Prompt Used for Resolution:
"Below, I have pasted the transcript of Trump's Inaugural Address of January 20, 2025.
I want you to tell me whether you consider this Address to be "mostly optimistic" or "mostly pessimistic". Do not include any explanation and reply only with the words "mostly optimistic" or "mostly pessimistic", according to the result of your analysis of the speech.
INAUGURATION ADDRESS BEGINS:
[text body]"
1,000
3.00@DanielPeters Sure, here's the prompt that I will use. I'm open to improving the prompt or the resolution criteria.
"Below, I have pasted the transcript of Trump's Inaugural Address of January 20, 2025.
I want you to tell me whether you consider this Address to be "mostly optimistic" or "mostly pessimistic". Do not include any explanation and reply only with the words "mostly optimistic" or "mostly pessimistic", according to the result of your analysis of the speech.
INAUGURATION ADDRESS BEGINS:
[text body]"
@BrunoJ You might consider adding the current market description into the prompt, so traders and chatgpt are reading from the same prompt
@BrunoJ No I mean add the market description to the prompt so that ChatGPT has read what the traders have read. IE you wrote:
Optimistic will resolve YES if ChatGPT determines the speech primarily emphasizes hope, progress, positive changes, and a bright future for America.
It'd be useful if ChatGPT and the traders were reading the same definitions of optimistic.
(Also o1-mini already added the prompt you said you'd use to the market description :))