Which of the following users will stay active on manifold until EOY 2025? | Manifold

Which of the following users will stay active on manifold until EOY 2025?

Plus

32

Ṁ6475

2026

90%

82%

80%

74%

68%

65%

50%

46%

46%

43%

42%

@EliezerYudkowsky

38%

@SteveSokolowski

23%

15%

6%

Feel free to add yourselves or any other user :p

"Not active" is not defined precisely, but the idea is that if someone essentially stops going on manifold a few times per week, for a month or two, their option can resolve NO.

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bought Ṁ150 NO

@Bayesian a bunch of these should resolve no

Thanks

wait, should people not buy their own option to 100%, because if they quit the app it won't be a disadvantage to lose this mana anyway? hmMmMmMm

@Bayesian I've been shorting everyone except Gabrielle bc of this distortionary effect 🤭

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 40% order

@Stralor got a limit order on my option >:)

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Bayesian sure I'll bite a lil out for now :D

bought Ṁ100 YES

I've been around since the beginning, I'll probably still be around

bought Ṁ10 NO

very likely they will take a break

@nikki I've taken a break before, so I can see myself taking a break again

It's actually so hard to tell if I should buy any of these up or down, so passes the new market sniff test

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