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Unless otherwise specified:
"Trump bans" refers to Trump or the US government, but actions, like "Trump says X" refers only to Trump. I expect the intent to be pretty clear. (If not, I reserve the right to modify the phrasing to make it clearer; ping me if you find an option unclear)
"Trump" refers to the person that was president of the US in 2017-2021.
If something is not known to have happened, unless otherwise specified, it would resolve NO. For example, the option "Trump gets COVID" resolves NO unless it is announced or sufficiently confirmed, despite the possibility that he gets covid without announcing it. The intent here is to resolve YES when the balance of evidence clearly indicates the option prediction happened.
"Trump's Second Term" is the time between Jan 20 2025 and Jan 20 2029, so long as the US continues to exist and Republicans remain in power in the White House. Trump dying doesn't end Trump's Second Term for the purposes of this market.
I reserve the right to cancel any option that doesn't seem relevant / unconnected to trump / etc. If a question is ambiguous, please ping the question creator for clarification. If they don't clarify within a few days, ping me and I'll decide how it's disambiguated.
Consensus of credible reporting will be used for this market's resolution. I am not following Trump's every move so I'd very much appreciate @s when options need to be resolved.
1,000
3.00You just never know with this guy. Reminds me of the legendary @SteveSokolowski in the sense that you never know where the boundary of reality/truth and just pure, unparalleled trolling exists. Nothing is True and Everything is Possible, Oh Dear.
https://xcancel.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1875050089305252190#m
TRUMP WAS RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING
Damn the term hasn't even started yet and he's already doing third person lol
@AaronSimansky not revisit also includes that its just never brought before the supreme court so they never even talk about it
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-praises-project-2025-2000245 already happening. Hasn't reached anything close enough for a yes yet, but he's already softening his tone on it. Moment he thinks he can, he's going to sing its praises
@Shai Oh absolutely not - I remember reports out of his last administration of him not spending a ton of time reading intelligence briefings and other memos people put in front of him. People I know who have read the Project 2025 doc have characterized it as being a slog, so I doubt he'd see something that big and read all of it. I do think Trump probably has SOME level of knowledge about it, but only to the extent that it's been summarized to him by aides and other people around him
It kinda looks to me like it isn't visible in his Time Person of the Year cover, does anyone agree? His face is a uniform non-orange skin colour that matches his hands
compare for example
or
working criteria: it's not visible on him in multiple consecutive well lit public appearances over multiple weeks
Obviously per my given criteria one pic isn't enough and his term hasn't started yet, but there's a chance he might do it again
@CS2 what if he literally says the words, “the n-word” like here:https://youtu.be/RL17-2yi9wE?si=z4xndISpGYNHPQN2
@Siebe is 25% a lower bound or an upper bound? or is the dash intended to be a minus sign?
I’d appreciate if you clarified like “Total NIH funding in 2024 ≤ 0.75 × min(funding for any previous year)” or similar
@KimberlyWilberLIgt good question, I clarified here
https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/what-will-happen-during-trumps-seco#wuuhfzskrgb
but yeah, I'll make the text clearer too
@Siebe pardon, isn’t that equivalence backwards? Your other comment seems to say “funding in 2024 will decrease by at least 25% below the previous low”
(sorry for being nitpicky lol)
@KimberlyWilberLIgt no it's not. 2024 is the reference year and not part of Trump's second term. The question is whether NIH funding will decrease significantly (at least 25%) during Trump's second term as compared to 2024