Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
Plus
68
Ṁ31kAug 1
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14899/1000-deaths-from-israeliran-conflict/
This question will resolve as Yes if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) reports 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths for the Iran-Israel conflict (specifically, the category "state-based violence"). The 1,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.
If UCDP does not report data for 2023 and 2024, the question resolves as Ambiguous
Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - New resolution date: August 1, 2025.
Market is reopened until this date.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the death toll in the current Israel-Palestinian conflict reach 100,000?
34% chance
Will Iran nuke Israel before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will there be a conflict between 3 or more states in the middle east before 2025?
41% chance
Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?
8% chance
Conditional on a war between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon, how many will die on the Hezbollah/Lebanese side before 2025?
if >10 people die in Israel as a result from Iran's missile strikes will there be a formal war between Iran and Israel
19% chance
If Israel attacks Iran within 3 months, will 15+ people be killed as a result of the attack?
12% chance