🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Basic
54
Ṁ12kDec 2
57%
14%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
4%
Yulia Navalnaya
3%
NATO
2%
Julian Assange
1.6%
Donald Trump
1.1%
Vladimir Putin
1%
Antonio Guterres
1%
David Attenborough
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bought Ṁ5 Other YES1mo
There seem to be 2 entries for international court of justice, is one of them meant to be international criminal court?
sold Ṁ51 Julian Assange NO1mo
2026 version -> 🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES] l
bought Ṁ50 Donald Trump NO1mo
Assuming this splits equally among all winners? I'd recommend resolving to "Other" for all portions that are not listed at market close! So like, let's say it's joint between Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and JD Vance, but only the first two are listed at market close, resolving 33/33/33 between Trump, Musk, and Other? Or you could get around this by just adding the winning option and resolving, when it becomes known?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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