Background

The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee to individuals or organizations who have made outstanding contributions to promoting peace. Donald Trump has been nominated for the 2025 prize by multiple individuals, including Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Merezhko and U.S. Representative Claudia Tenney. However, nominations alone do not indicate likelihood of winning - the Committee typically receives hundreds of nominations each year.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for 2025 by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The announcement is typically made in early October 2025, with the award ceremony held in December 2025. The market will resolve to NO if:

• Someone else wins the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize

• The prize is shared between multiple recipients but Trump is not among them

• No prize is awarded for 2025

Considerations

• Being nominated does not significantly impact chances of winning - hundreds of people are nominated each year

• The Norwegian Nobel Committee's selection process is confidential and independent of the nomination process

• The Committee tends to favor ongoing peace efforts and recent achievements rather than past accomplishments

• No U.S. president has won the Nobel Peace Prize while in office since Woodrow Wilson in 1919, though former president Barack Obama won it in 2009 during his first year as president