☀️What will happen in June 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]

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Ṁ1807

Jul 1

99%

trump leaves usa at least once

99%

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

99%

Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month

98.8%

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

97%

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

94%

dick cheney still alive at end of month

90%

trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times

80%

🏳️‍🌈 1-4 fortune 100 companies change their logos for Pride

76%

a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news

72%

silksong game release date announced

70%

noam chomsky alive until end of month

69%

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

69%

large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement

69%

🏳️‍🌈 5-10 fortune 100 companies change their logos for Pride

66%

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

66%

Volcano dormant for half a year erupts

66%

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

55%

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

50%

Anthropic or Meta release a new model

45%

nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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june soon

bought Ṁ5 NO

Pride logo prop bets: from last year, seemed around 10 companies:

https://www.yellopolitics.com/p/some-brands-didnt-do-rainbow-logos , some of them are collected in a Figma community: https://www.figma.com/community/file/1401846671670337559/pride-month-2024-400-brands-changed-logos-to-support-lgbtqia (missing some)

any opposition to counting Twitter/X and Instagram (and not Bluesky) as our representative social networks for the “how many logos” prop bets?

On June 15 I’ll do a tally by collecting a list of F100 companies, then checking each brand account on Insta and Twitter.

American F100 only, right?

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