🌭What will happen in July 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]

Basic

Ṁ2755

Aug 1

99%

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

99%

Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month

99%

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

98.4%

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

97%

dick cheney still alive at end of month

96%

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

95%

noam chomsky alive until end of month

92%

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

90%

trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times

80%

a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news

59%

A tornado in the U.S. rated EF3 or greater.

43%

Any mass size protest will happen

41%

Anthropic or Meta release a new model

41%

silksong game release date announced

33%

100F temperature in nyc at least one day

31%

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

31%

another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia

26%

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

26%

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

20%

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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1,000

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3.00

6 Comments

38 Holders

207 Trades

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bought Ṁ81 YES

@strutheo
3.42
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CF6&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

bought Ṁ38 YES

@strutheo
2025-07-16T20:37:39Z

7.3

87 km S of Sand Point, Alaska
https://www.iris.edu/app/seismic-monitor/table?lat=0.0000&lng=0.0000&zoom=2

bought Ṁ27 YES

@strutheo https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/microsoft-laying-off-about-9000-employees-in-latest-round-of-cuts.html

bought Ṁ30 YES

@strutheo https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-sp-500-nasdaq-leap-to-fresh-records-as-vietnam-trade-deal-boosts-hopes-ahead-of-key-jobs-report-230021146.html

@strutheo
NVidia $3.885B market cap per https://companiesmarketcap.com/ at closing price $159.34 but highest today 160.98 so $3.925B reached today.

Apple $3.189B at closing price of $213.55 but peak price was $260.09 so peak market cap $3.884B
Microsoft $3.707B at closing price of $498.84 peak value $500.76 so peak market cap $3.72B

So I think this resolves yes.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@strutheo was announced in March 2025

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