🔮What will be true about the world at the end of 2028? [ADD RESPONSES]
➕
Plus
86
Ṁ13k
2029
98.9%
five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved
92%
Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)
90%
xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month
85%
publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably
82%
True Detective Season 5 released
81%
Destiny is still regularly livestreaming
80%
Putin still leader of Russia
80%
Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport
79%
Xi still leader of China
77%
Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter
77%
1200 or more official pokemon
76%
Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan
76%
New Pope after Francis
75%
USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)
75%
Winner of 2028 election is Democrat
74%
Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta
73%
Palworld is still able to be played through Steam
73%
Charles still King of UK
71%
At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power
68%
Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

📋GUIDELINES (incomplete)

  • I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

  • All resolutions require proof posted as a comment for me to resolve.

  • Make your answer submissions as clear and descriptive as possible. I reserve the right to rephrase answers as needed.

  • Please keep self-referential answers like 'will this market reach X answers' to a minimum, although I might personally add a few

🔎Specific Rules

  • Crypto and Stock prices will be determined by Google

  • Celebrity status is determined by Manifold if I think it is unclear. At the end of the month, a poll will be run to determine the resolution of those questions.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

@strutheo Resolves NO.

bought Ṁ500 YES

@strutheo Resolves YES as of Dec. 7 and Dec. 17, 2024

bought Ṁ400 YES

@strutheo It's at USD$2640ish right now

@Unown Resolves NO

bought Ṁ500 YES

@strutheo Resolves YES as of Dec. 5, 2024 according to Google market summary

reposted

upgraded to basic

reposted

Aww, this has been N/A'd.

I'm so petty that when the wave of paperclips is reaching me, my last thought is guaranteed to be "I told you so, @strutheo " 😛

@BrunoParga just because i dont want to take up one of 100 slots with 0% for 4 years </3

i'd leave it otherwise!

@BrunoParga lol you have my permission to curse my name in your final moments, and i will feel very embarrassed if it happens

@strutheo I'm actually confused about that - does it work? Like, does N/Aing a question free up its slot?

@BrunoParga yes , after the january market broke the site, they made it so it is only 100 active questions for each MC market. so now there is another spot to add a question here

King Charles diagnosed with cancer and will postpone public-facing duties while undergoing treatment, Buckingham Palace says

reposted

arbitrage opportunity incoming

@CC4 never mind guys no Arbitrage

Would you count this as ongoing if there's a ceasefire but no formal peace treaty? (Similar to North Korea and South Korea today)

@TimothyJohnson5c16 good question - if a situation like korea arises i might poll manifold if they think the war is still going or not, since that is a bit of a technicality.

I personally dislike options like this. Doesn't feel in line with "ooo we don't know when but will it happen before 2028"? There are options like this in most of your grab bags (I feel the same in all of them), if others like them that's fine just my 2 cents

@Tumbles i accept the feedback, its true theyre much less fun. will focus on the better ones

To be clear, a paper just needs to be published about one in a peer reviewed journal?

@Tumbles a replication that has gone through the peer review process of a scientific journal

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules