Will "the USA and the whole world burn" during Trump's term?
Will "the USA and the whole world burn" during Trump's term?
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15
Ṁ8632029
18%
chance
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1W
1M
ALL
A global conflict or lots of strife and smaller wars, or some other catastrophe at least indirectly caused by or involving the Trump administration.
https://bsky.app/profile/bladeofthes.bsky.social/post/3lgazwndnrs2i
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This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through BlueSky. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets (except buying & selling at market creation to increase trader count).
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Inspired by the Rumble market series by @CodeandSolder
Update 2025-22-01 (PST): - Hyper inflation in the US will resolve the market to YES. (AI summary of creator comment)
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
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How do I win cash prizes?
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