Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the margin of victory (MOV) achieved by Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 New York City Democratic mayoral primary. The MOV is calculated as the percentage point difference between Mamdani's final vote share and that of the runner-up candidate. The market will resolve to the option corresponding to the MOV range that includes this percentage point difference. Official results from the New York City Board of Elections will serve as the source for resolution.

Background

Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old Democratic Socialist and New York State Assemblymember representing the 36th District in Queens, has secured the Democratic nomination for New York City's 2025 mayoral election. He defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo in a significant upset. Mamdani's campaign focused on progressive policies such as rent freezes, free public transportation, and city-owned grocery stores. His grassroots approach attracted substantial support from younger voters and endorsements from prominent progressives like Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. (time.com)

Considerations

The 2025 Democratic primary utilized a ranked-choice voting system, where voters ranked candidates in order of preference. This system can lead to multiple rounds of vote tabulation, potentially affecting the final margin of victory. Additionally, the presence of high-profile candidates like Andrew Cuomo may have influenced voter dynamics and the overall competitiveness of the race. (reuters.com)

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